World Cup Penalty Shootouts: A Statistical Guide to Winning
We analyze data from 320 World Cup penalty kicks to see what determines success in the most high-pressure moments of the tournament.
Photo: Wikimedia Commons / CC BY 3.0 / Author: Danilo Borges/ copa2014.gov.br Licença Creative Commons Atribuição 3.0 Brasil
As the World Cup heads into the knockout stages, penalty shootouts are once again the center of attention. With the introduction of the round of 32 for the 2026 tournament, the frequency of these shootouts is expected to rise. Analyzing the 320 spot-kicks taken since 1982 provides a unique insight into what actually works under pressure.
Argentina stands out as the most successful nation, having won six out of seven shootouts. Germany and Croatia also maintain impressive records, winning all of their attempts. Conversely, Spain has struggled significantly, missing more penalties than any other team in recent history. Switzerland currently holds the record for missing every penalty in their shootouts.
Tactically, data suggests that aiming for the center is a poor strategy. While central kicks are saved less often by goalkeepers, they are much more likely to miss the target entirely compared to shots directed at the corners. Players who pick a side have a significantly higher success rate than those who try to go down the middle.
Player position also correlates with success, as forwards convert at a 75% rate, outperforming defenders and midfielders. Meanwhile, the strategy of bringing on a substitute specifically for a shootout remains hit-or-miss, with few players succeeding in that high-pressure scenario compared to those already on the pitch.