Brazil favored against Norway, but Haaland leads goalscoring projections in World Cup Round of 16
Brazil aims for a quarter-final spot against Norway, but Erling Haaland edges out Vini Jr in goalscoring probability; see the data.
Photo: Wikimedia Commons / CC BY-SA 4.0 / Author: Granada
Brazil prepares to face Norway this Sunday, July 5, in the Round of 16 of the 2026 World Cup. According to projections, the Brazilian national team holds a 67% chance of advancing to the quarter-finals.
Despite Brazil's favorite status, the most likely player to score is Norway's Erling Haaland. With five goals in the tournament already, the striker has a 45% probability of finding the net, slightly edging out Brazil's primary attacking hope, Vinicius Junior, who sits at 43%.
The match serves as another chapter in the rivalry between Haaland and Brazilian defender Gabriel Magalhaes, who frequently face off in the Premier League. In addition to the scoring battle, Vinicius Junior leads the projections for assists in the fixture.
Beyond the immediate goal of reaching the final eight, Brazil is looking to break a unique historical trend. Norway remains the only nation to have faced Brazil at least once without ever suffering a defeat, boasting two wins and two draws in their four previous encounters. If Brazil wins, it will secure its ninth consecutive quarter-final appearance, while Norway is participating in its first World Cup knockout stage since 1998.