Arsenal v Man City: Does winning the Community Shield predict success?
As Arsenal and Manchester City prepare for Sunday's Community Shield, we look at the historical data linking the season opener to future success.
Photo: Wikimedia Commons / CC BY-SA 4.0 / Author: Ank kumar
Premier League champions Arsenal face FA Cup winners Manchester City at Cardiff's Principality Stadium this Sunday. While both sides are widely expected to compete for the league title again, history suggests the Community Shield is rarely a reliable indicator of what lies ahead.
Since the Premier League era began in 1992, only eight winners of the Community Shield have gone on to win the league title that same season. In the last 15 years, that feat has been achieved only once. Interestingly, the losers of the curtain-raiser have actually claimed the league title more often—10 times since 1992—with Manchester City achieving this three years running between 2021 and 2023.
Individual form in the match is equally unpredictable. Some players, like Raheem Sterling in 2019, used a Shield strike as a catalyst for a career-best season. Others, such as Erling Haaland, failed to score in their Shield debut yet went on to record prolific campaigns. The match remains a high-profile fixture between two elite clubs, but the data confirms that a victory in Cardiff does not guarantee domestic dominance.